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题名 基于系统动力学的循环经济产业链仿真模拟探索
姓名 张宇杰
院系 资源环境学院
专业 环境工程
学位名称 工学硕士
外文题名 Simulation of Circular Economy Industrial Chain Based on System Dynamics
第一导师姓名 王博
关键词 可持续发展;循环经济产业链;系统动力学模型;模拟
外文关键词 Sustainable development;circular economy industrial chain;system dynamics model;simulation
学科 工学
摘要 本文主要研究目的包括:通过构建关联性系统动力学模型,以加强对影响循环经济产业链节点的各个因素重要性及其相互间关系的理解;通过调整模型内含公式、参数,进行对比分析研究,初步量化分析构建循环经济产业链前后产业链节点效益的差别;辅助理解企业主动承担相应的社会责任,构建循环经济产业链处理传统废弃物,有助于其树立更为积极的企业形象、提升自身的软实力,并能转化直接、间接的为经济效益;在此基础上,进一步研究新建工业园区的基本状况,以其核心循环经济产业链为研究对象,模拟其近期及远期的实际运行状况,探究其各级节点的发展关联性,为工业园区拟定发展战略提供参考意见。本文以甘肃省酒钢集团成熟工业体系为例,通过Vensim PLE软件建模并仿真模拟,对比分析可知:预计未来五年酒钢集团铁、钢坯产量的五年总增长幅度为9.13%,6.60%,分别低于改造后铁、钢坯产量的未来五年总增长幅度的19.16%,10.41%;循环经济产业链前后尾矿废石五年总增长幅度分别为1.83,1.28。
外文摘要 In this paper, based on the concept of the strategy of sustainable development, circular economy concept, the basic theory of circular economy industrial chain and system dynamics, meanwhile, many built system dynamics model of related fields’ practical experience at home or abroad are learnt for reference. In this paper, by analyzing the basic situation of the industrial system, based on Vensim PLE software, building economy industrial chain model based on. the system dynamic. In this paper, the mainly research purpose: to build the related system dynamics models, to strengthen the understanding of the relationship between the factors that affect the industry chain nodes; by adjusting the containing formula and parameter, to contrast and research, to preliminarily exploit of the difference between the unbuilt and built circular economy industrial chain’s node’s efficiency, it’s efficiency gains in driving is known as quantitative expression; to make a quantitative analysis of the construction of circular economy industrial chain''''s influence on the traditional waste accumulation amount, and to understand enterprises have direct or indirect benefits by building circular economy industrial chain to proces traditional waste. on this basis, continue a further study on the basic situation of the new industrial park, learn its enclosed circular economy industrial chain as a whole, simulation to simulate it’s actual running state, through the analysis of its recent and long-term running status, to explore its overall relevance, to provide guidance for practical industrial park’s development strategy.In this paper, based on Jisco in Gansu province, using the Vensim PLE software modeling, through the simulation, Comparative analysis shows that, in the next five years jisco group’s total iron, steel billet production growth rate are 9.13%, 6.60%, respectively, below the modified iron, steel billet production of 19.16% of the total growth over the next five years’s 10.41%;Good circular economy industrial chain tailings waste rock before and after five years total growth were 1.83, 1.28.
研究领域 循环经济
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