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题名 新疆区域性极端干旱事件及其数值模拟和预测研究
姓名 石彦军
院系 大气科学学院
专业 气象学
学位名称 理学博士
外文题名 Research on Regional Extreme Drought Events and Their Numerical Simulation and Prediction in Xinjiang Area
第一导师姓名 王式功
关键词 新疆区域性极端干旱;SPI 指数改进;极端干旱空间分型;气候数值模拟;PSO_LSSVM 干旱预测模型
外文关键词 regional extreme drought in Xinjiang;SPI index improvement;space types;numerical simulation of climate;PSO_LSSVM drought
学科 理学
摘要 新疆大部分地区处于干旱区,导致人们对该地区的干旱问题习以为常,因而对其极端干旱问题重视不够。然而新疆是我国最大的内陆省份,占全国陆地总面积的1/6,其区域性极端干旱事件对当地的农牧业生产、水资源、民族团结和地区稳定以及丝绸之路经济带的繁荣都有重要的影响,对其极端干旱问题进行研究,既有重要的科学价值,又有很大的现实意义。 本文遴选出最适宜研究新疆极端干旱的韦布分布函数,对原SPI指数进行了改进,使其更适合于检测新疆极端干旱;根据改进后的新疆SPI指数空间分布,可将新疆极端干旱划分为北疆型、南疆型和东疆型三种空间分布型,并探明了各分布型所对应的环流形势和物理量特征;数值模拟研究发现,KUO方案适合于北疆型和东疆型极端干旱事件的数值模拟,而Grell方案最适合于南疆型极端干旱事件的数值模拟,据此进行对流参数化方案的优选可显著提高新疆区域性极端干旱气候模式系统的模拟能力;最后研究建立了基于PSO_LSSVM的分区域、分季节的干旱预测模型。这些都可为新疆极端干旱事件的检测、预测及其灾害防御提供科学依据和技术支持。
外文摘要 Most parts of Xinjiang are in the arid area, which caused people become accustomed to the drought problems in the region, so insufficient attention was paid to its extreme drought problem. However, as the largest inland province in China, Xinjiang occupies around 1/6 of China's land mass. The regional extreme drought in Xinjiang province persistently induces important influences on the agriculture and stock, the water resources,the national unity, the regional stability and the prosperity of Silk Road Economic Belt. It is obviously that studying the extreme drought problems in Xinjiang province will not only has an important scientific value, but also has an essential practical significance. This paper selects the Weibull distribution as the most suitable distribution for detecting the extreme drought events in Xinjiang province, improve the original SPI indexes and make the model more suitable and useful to study Xinjiang’s extreme drought problems. By using the spatial distribution of improved SPI indexes, we divide the extreme droughts into three spatial distribution types: Northern Xinjiang type, Southern Xinjiang type and Eastern Xinjiang type, and clarify the corresponding circulation situations and physics characteristics.The numerical simulations results show that KUO scheme is good for the extreme drought events of Northern Xinjiang type and Eastern Xinjiang type, and Grell scheme is more matched to the extreme drought events of Southern Xinjiang type.Accordingly, we can optimize the parameterization schemes and distinctly improve the capability of the model system for regional extreme drought climate simulation in Xinjiang province. Also, the drought prediction models of different regions and seasons are establish based on PSO_LSSVM. All of these can provide the remarkable scientific basis and technical support for the detection,forecast and disaster prevention of the extreme drought events in Xinjiang province.
研究领域 干旱气候与灾害气象
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